The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected a remarkable increase in global oil supply for the year 2024. This surge is anticipated to set a new record, with daily production reaching an unprecedented level of 103.5 million barrels.

Major Contributors to the Oil Boom

This phenomenal growth in oil supply is primarily attributed to the significant output from four countries: the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. The non-OPEC+ nations are the key drivers of this increase, contributing nearly 1.5 million barrels per day to the total growth.

The Role of OPEC+ in Market Stability

In contrast, the OPEC+ group’s supply is predicted to remain relatively stable, aligning closely with the previous year’s figures. This stability is based on the assumption that the additional voluntary cuts introduced at the beginning of the year will be gradually phased out in the second quarter of 2024.

Subtle Balance in the Global Oil Market

The IEA points out that while the supply management policies of OPEC+ might initially lead to a slight deficit in the oil market, the robust output from non-OPEC+ countries could result in a significant surplus. This scenario is likely if the OPEC+ group proceeds with the unwinding of their extra voluntary cuts in the second quarter of 2024.

Short-term Decline Due to Weather Conditions

Despite the overall positive forecast for 2024, the IEA has noted a potential short-term decline in global oil supply. This decrease is attributed to extreme cold weather conditions adversely affecting oil operations in the United States and Canada.

Source: https://www.tbsnews.net/world/global-economy/iea-expects-record-oil-supply-2024-777530