The Struggle for UK Retail in the Festive Season

As the UK ushered in the festive period of 2023, expectations were high for a surge in retail sales. Yet, the anticipated growth remained elusive. Burdened by economic uncertainties, consumers tightened their purse strings, leading to a noticeable hesitance in spending. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has flagged 2024 as a year of continued challenges for the retail sector. This forecast stems from the high cost of living, which is expected to keep consumer spending in check.

The final quarter of 2023, particularly December, witnessed a decline in non-food sales. This decrease was more significant than the average drop observed over the past year. In-store non-food sales dipped by 1.3% in the three months leading to December, contrasting with the 1.6% average growth over the previous 12 months. Simultaneously, online non-food sales also experienced a downturn, albeit slower than the overall 12-month trend.

Helen Dickinson OBE, CEO of the BRC, highlighted that the festive season did little to compensate for the sluggish retail sales growth experienced throughout the year. Weak consumer confidence continued to impede spending, particularly in areas like furniture and homeware, where households remained cautious about larger purchases. Despite a minor increase in sales in the week before Christmas, largely driven by last-minute online shopping and inclement weather, the overall scenario remained grim.

Rising Costs and Disruptions: A Double Whammy for Retailers

As 2024 dawns, UK retailers are not only grappling with restrained consumer spending but also facing a rise in operational costs. The scheduled increase in business rates in April poses a significant challenge. Additionally, retailers are bracing for disruptions in shipments from the Far East via the Red Sea. These factors combined with the high cost of living create a complex landscape for the retail sector. Political parties are urged to consider these issues in their retail strategies to support the industry’s growth and customer service.

Paul Martin, UK head of retail at KPMG, pointed out that retailers had to extend more aggressive promotions than in previous years. While these promotions helped ease grocery price inflation, they also reduced profit margins. Despite these efforts, and some consumers having slightly more disposable income than the previous Christmas, the cumulative impact of economic challenges over the last two years is becoming increasingly apparent.

Cautious Optimism for the Future

Despite the current challenges, there is a glimmer of hope. The fall in inflation, along with a planned cut in national insurance rates, might provide some relief to consumers. However, the initial months of 2024 are expected to continue the downward pressure on demand. The situation will likely improve by spring if economic conditions improve and consumer confidence rebounds.

2024 presents a complex and challenging environment for UK retailers. The sector faces a critical period with increased operational costs, supply chain disruptions, and cautious consumer spending. However, the potential for economic improvement offers a ray of hope for retailers and consumers alike.

Source: https://www.just-style.com/news/uk-retail-to-face-challenging-2024-on-business-rates/