Economic Forecast: A Mixed Bag
As 2024 unfolds, Canadians are bracing for a complex economic scenario. Insights from ten experts, as presented in FP Video’s comprehensive interviews, paint a picture of varied expectations. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research expresses a rather pessimistic view, particularly focusing on the national economy, the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar, and gold prospects.
Real Estate and Interest Rates: Caution Ahead
The real estate sector, often a bellwether of economic health, shows signs of a restrained rebound. Experts like Vancouver realtor Steve Saretsky and John Pasalis from Realosophy Realty suggest a muted recovery in the housing market. Concurrently, economic forecasts from Dawn Desjardins, Deloitte Canada’s chief economist, predict potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, which could have ripple effects across various economic sectors, including the labor market.
Persistent Concerns: Inflation and Investment
A key concern for Canadians in 2024 remains the persistent inflation, particularly in food prices. Michael Von Massow, a food economics expert, highlights the continued pressure on grocery bills. This issue is compounded by what William Robson of the C.D. Howe Institute describes as dismal business investment trends in Canada, raising concerns about economic vitality.
Investment Strategies: Bonds and Stocks
Investment strategies for 2024 seem to be tilting towards a resurgence in bonds, as David Kaufman of Westcourt Capital Corp suggested. On the other side of the spectrum, Dennis Mitchell from Starlight Capital emphasizes that the stock market 2024 will likely favor the discerning stock picker, indicating a more nuanced approach to equity investments.
International Relations and Trade: Uncertain Waters
The international scene, particularly the Canada-U.S. relationship, is poised for potential upheaval, contingent on the U.S. presidential election outcomes. Analyst Greg Valliere points out the significant implications of a Donald Trump presidency or a Joe Biden second term on Canada-U.S. relations, the markets, and the broader economy. Trade, another critical aspect of Canada’s international engagement, appears challenging, as trade lawyer Mark Warner outlined. However, there’s also an undercurrent of opportunity, particularly in critical minerals.
Sector-Specific Outlook: Energy and Housing
Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, sheds light on the energy sector, particularly the oil market’s persistent challenges. Amplified by record population growth, the housing sector is likely to experience intensified pressure, reflecting broader economic trends.
In summary, Canada’s economic journey in 2024 is expected to be multifaceted, with challenges and opportunities across various sectors. As these expert insights suggest, adaptability and strategic foresight will be key for Canadians navigating this complex landscape.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-canadian-economy-housing-market-160018148.html
