An Uptick in Small Business Morale
In December, the U.S. witnessed a noteworthy yet cautious rise in small business sentiment, marking the first uplift in five months. As reported in a recent survey, this surge signals a slight shift in the tide of business owner confidence. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) documented this increase with their index ascending to 91.9, up from November’s 90.6. This change mirrored the reading of July, yet remained under the 50-year average of 98 for the 24th consecutive month.
Persistent Hurdles: Inflation and Labor Costs
Despite this positive swing in sentiment, small business owners are not out of the woods yet. High labor costs and the looming shadow of inflation are major concerns. In December, 25% of businesses reported a profit downturn, albeit a 7-point improvement from the previous month. The hefty weight of labor expenses plays a significant role in these diminished earnings.
Inflation, meanwhile, stands as the primary worry for business owners. The percentage of those citing inflation as their top challenge climbed to a seasonally adjusted 23%. This uptick coincides with a surprise 0.1% rise in U.S. consumer prices in November, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates. The 12-month data from November showed a 3.1% increase in prices, partially fueled by a rise in automobile costs.
Looking Ahead with Cautious Optimism
The NFIB’s report also sheds light on the changing landscape of concerns among small business owners. The number of owners who see labor quality as their biggest issue decreased by four points to 20%, while concerns over labor costs saw a slight increase. Looking ahead, there’s a mix of pessimism and hope. The proportion of business owners anticipating better business conditions over the next six months rose by 6 points, though it still rests at a net negative 36%.
The U.S. small business sector has shown signs of resilience with an increase in overall sentiment. However, challenges such as labor costs and inflation persist, keeping optimism in check. This delicate balance between hope and reality paints a complex picture for the future of small businesses in the U.S.
